Clouds of Vagueness

Fools and liars

My ears are burning (metaphorically).  I’ve just read Bent Flyvbjerg’s paper on quality control and due diligence in project management.  His theme is the inaccuracy in forecast project costs and benefits.  Specifically, the tendency to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits is attributed to the ‘planning fallacy’, a creation of our old friends Tversky, Kahneman and co.  The source of […]