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optimism bias

This tag is associated with 3 posts

More for your money

By ⋅ 11 November 2013 ⋅ One comment

I promised to review the Infrastructure Risk Group report on Managing Cost Risk & Uncertainty In Infrastructure Projects, a report which was launched last month at the ICE with the sponsorship of the IRM. The report is a result of work undertaken as part of the Infrastructure UK investigation of the high cost of infrastructure projects.  […]

Risk appetite – the official definition

By ⋅ 25 October 2013 ⋅ Post a comment

Earlier this week I attended a grand occasion – the launch of the Infrastructure Risk Group’s report on Managing Cost and Uncertainty in Infrastructure Projects.  This was held at the Institution of Civil Engineers, sponsored by the IRM, and the endorsements were provided by Andrew Wolstenholme, boss of Crossrail, Lord Deighton, the Treasury Commercial Secretary […]

Fools and liars

By ⋅ 12 March 2013 ⋅ 3 comments

My ears are burning (metaphorically).  I’ve just read Bent Flyvbjerg’s paper on quality control and due diligence in project management.  His theme is the inaccuracy in forecast project costs and benefits.  Specifically, the tendency to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits is attributed to the ‘planning fallacy’, a creation of our old friends Tversky, Kahneman and co.  The source of […]

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