Clouds of Vagueness
Archive for April, 2013
Resilience (Part 2): aircraft carriers on the lawn
In the previous article I explored resilience in the way it is described in the WEF global risk report. It was hard to find much that distinguished it from a conventional risk management approach – listing actions against risks – apart from: a recognition that things look different at different scales – the global uncertainty […]
Resilience (Part 1)
For some time it’s been a theme in meetings between risk management people and business continuity people that the world’s ills can be solved by being resilient. Specifically, you don’t need to worry about that boring old risk profile when resilience means you can deal with anything that’s thrown at you, up to and including […]
We need to talk
I’m getting sidetracked trying to write an article on resilience. One of the hares I’ve chased is Robert Kaplan’s and Anette Mikes’ discussion of three types of risk. This is because it is asserted by the World Economic Forum’s risk report to recommend resilience as the correct approach to long-term global risks. Turns out it […]
I know what you’re thinking …
I’ve been thinking about the short exchange I had with Matthew Leitch when he disagreed with my description of his article on risk registers. It seems we live in different worlds. His appears to be one in which risk lists and all the associated barbarisms of matrices and traffic lights have been discredited and, presumably, […]
Proud to be a war quant
I’ve just re-read Douglas W Hubbard’s The Failure of Risk Management. It’s an odd book in that while I agree with most of what’s in it, I’m not particularly convinced by the overall story suggested by the subtitle: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It. Hubbard’s theme is that we do not do enough, […]
Words in his mouth
In the course of reviewing Doug Hubbard’s book on failing risk management, I thought it was worth a little wanderette on how much Thomas Bayes has been abused, or bigged up depending on how you see it. I thought it would go as follows. “Bayes’ contribution to posterity was to get his name against a formula for joint probabilities which […]
It’s a risky world, just ask anyone
Last week the Institute of Risk Management North West regional group held a meeting on Adapting to the Global Risk Landscape. The intention was to talk about some of the most serious long term risks and what we should be doing about them. There’s a write up of the meeting appearing shortly on the IRM website, but […]
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