Clouds of Vagueness
Archive for March, 2013
Fragility management
I reviewed Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book Antifragility with the promise to look separately at what the lessons might be for organisational risk management. The answer is quite a bit, and this article will just be an initial high level view. The thinking is developed pretty uncritically from the book. There will be plenty of scope […]
Don’t worry, the end is nigh
The next article on this site is to be about applying M Bricolage’s antifragility ideas to organisational risk management. Not surprisingly I thought it was time to take a break for a little light amusement. I’ve just discovered that the University of Cambridge is thinking about setting up a Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. To my slight disappointment […]
Antifragility
Antifragility is the topic of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s last book in his trilogy on our uncertain world and how to deal with it. The other two were Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. These are both relatively narrow in their scope – though well worth their own reviews at some point – whilst Antifragility gives […]
Always look on the bright side of life
Matthew Leitch has asked some questions on my Risk workshops post which I think are aimed at my use of terminology and, specifically, the treatment of good things which could happen. This seemed to be worth its own Wandering. The term I’d prefer to use about the clouds of vagueness wreathing the ways things will work out […]
Risk workshops
I was talking to a colleague the other day who dismissed risk workshops in a rather peremptory way. He painted a picture of a pompous facilitator locked up in a room with 20 or so bored people with better things to do. “In any case we know all the risks and we can always review […]
Fools and liars
My ears are burning (metaphorically). I’ve just read Bent Flyvbjerg’s paper on quality control and due diligence in project management. His theme is the inaccuracy in forecast project costs and benefits. Specifically, the tendency to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits is attributed to the ‘planning fallacy’, a creation of our old friends Tversky, Kahneman and co. The source of […]
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