We develop software as part of our consulting work. On most of our assignments we use the powerful VBA capabilities of Microsoft Office to organise and present information in clearer ways. Building on this, our aim is to support our work with conceptually simple, but powerful tools customised from Office or in other ways which build on existing applications. We produced our first one in 2006.
Natural Monte Carlo
Natural Monte Carlo (see screenshot above) is a tool based on Microsoft Excel for calculating risk models using the Monte Carlo technique. The concept is that instead of containing single numbers the cells of a spreadsheet could fully represent uncertain quantities. To do this there are built-in functions to represent the input and output probability distributions and Microsoft Excel automatically recalculates the sheet, generating the output distributions. Features exist to generate reports and graphs.
We are making Natural Monte Carlo available without charge to people who are interested. Of course we do not accept any liability for the tool, for the results or the way you use them – don’t forget Monte Carlo is a naturally random method anyway. We also want to know who is using the tool and may ask you for your experience with Natural Monte Carlo. This is why it is password protected and you have to email us to obtain the key which is returned automatically and instantaneously.
If you are interested in using Natural Monte Carlo, you can view and download the manual and download the spreadsheet. Finally use this email link to generate an email which will give you the password.
Natural Uncertainty aka Natural Monte Carlo Mark 2
In 2021 we got around to revisiting the concept. Natural Monte Carlo needed careful control to populate and maintain its uncertain objects, and due to computing limitations departed somewhat from the ideal concept we were looking for. We have now reprogrammed it in a stripped down form – note the single worksheet and Show uncertainty item in the context menu – and in due course will make this tool available – it still needs a little tidying up. Feel free to get in touch if you are interested.